Tourism to the US is predicted to decline following the travel ban.
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According to industry experts, the president’s short-lived travel ban is going to have a devastating effect on the country’s tourism industry, which last year beat out automotive exports ($152 billion), agriculture ($137 billion), and petroleum exports ($97 billion), bringing in $246 billion. While the seven nations that were specifically targeted with the ban only amount to about 0.1 percent of travellers coming to the U.S., it will likely have a large, and negative, knock-on effect.
Between 2001 and 2006, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and America’s highly defensive rhetoric and policy, overseas travel to the States contracted by 3% and then failed to grow again. Comparatively, between 2008 and 2016, it grew almost 4% a year, for a 35% growth overall. But that’s likely to stall out, if not decline, in light of increased visa restrictions and a general feeling that the United States is no longer a hospitable and welcoming destination for world citizens.
Jonathan Grella, VP of public affairs for the U.S. Travel Association, says the industry’s trade group suggests that countries “can either provide incentives and roll out the red carpet for businesses to relocate and visitors to come, or they can tell them they’re not welcome any longer.” Many feel that the new administration is taking the latter path, placing the “America First” rhetoric above the actual economic realities of the country.
Unfortunately, these predictions are already being corroborated by data from airfare companies. Data from airfare app Hopper showed a 17 percent drop in search demand for travel to the U.S. from other countries in the week following the executive order. That loss of interest receded slightly to 10% two weeks after the ban, but remained there as of February 10th. From January 27-29, data from Cheapflights.com showed a shocking 38% drop in searches for travel to the U.S. Likewise, Flygresor.se showed a 47% decline in searches for flights to the U.S the weekend following the ban, as compared to the year before.
Actual flight bookings also declined, according to ForwardKeys and Responsible Travel. ForwardKeys showed a 6.5% drop in bookings compared to the same period in 2016, and Responsible Travel had a 22% decline in trip inquiries following the ban – despite the fact that the company has increased its overall business by about 30% this year.
“It doesn’t take a lot of uncertainty or adverse sentiment to affect travel decisions,” said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics at Oxford Economics.
While the drop in international tourism isn’t likely to tank the economy, it isn’t going to help it either. What’s more, the general sense that the rest of the world is no longer welcome here isn’t likely to help America’s international standing.
“The chaos and confusion were avoidable and unnecessary,” says Grella of the rushed executive order.
And unfortunately, the damage has been done. According to Rummy Pandit, executive director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism at Stockton University, “There’s a new perception that the U.S. is a place of instability, and that view will impact visitation to this country.”